Dai Qingcheng: What is the mystery of Li Chaos selling Hong Kong Building?

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Hong Kong and Macao Sudden Search

Stepping into mid -September, the weather in Hong Kong began to cool from hot, and news in society coincides with the light season.The exception is a commercial transaction from the Chief of Real Estate Development Merchants Group, which has set off a small ripple in the market.

On September 28, Changshi suddenly announced that all the remaining units in the Mid -Mid -Mid -Mountain luxury project were sold to one Singapore asset management company.Because the amount of the transaction was close to HK $ 21 billion (about S $ 3.8 billion), it was sold below the market price, and the news immediately became the focus of market attention.The outside world pays attention to whether Changshi's movements mean that the prospects of the Hong Kong property market are in good prospects.

The reason is that Li Jiacheng, the founder of Changshi, who has been the richest man in Hong Kong for many years, has always been accurate in the macro economy, especially the property market trend.Nearly in March this year, the British exchange rate was sold before the sale of a London -level commercial building before falling sharply, which proved that Li Jiacheng's grasp of the real estate market was very accurate.

Of course, when it comes to Li Ka -shing's proud work in the property market, he has to mention that Changshi will announce the sales of the Central Center for HK $ 40.2 billion at the end of 2017.At the time, when the Hong Kong -level business building market was hot, many people in the market had quite opinions on Changshi shipments, questioning Li Ka -shing's investment mentality too conservative.

A group of senior investors who swallow the building at the beginning of the building, at the beginning, also rejoiced and thought that they had picked up cheap goods.Unexpectedly, after the transaction of the building in 2018, the Hong Kong Commercial Building Road soon became weaker. Only the small amount of speculators holding the goods quickly sold the goods to make a profit, and most investors ended at a loss.

In recent years, Hong Kong's epidemic has raged, economic downturn, and commercial buildings have fallen.After checking the information, the rental price of the Central Center has fallen by 20 % from the early high level.When many people talked about this, they could not help but give Li Ka -shing the decision to give up the "fire stick" in a timely manner.

Because Li Ka -shing has been in investment for many years, his views on the economy and property market have also been regarded by Hong Kong people as "crystal balls".

Remember that before Li Jiacheng retired, each Changshi's performance press conference was crowded and crowded, and reporters kept asking how he looked at the prospects of economic and property markets.The comments of "Li Chaoren" often become the front page of the Hong Kong media the next day.

Today, Li Ka -shing has retired for many years. Outsiders do not know whether Changshi has decided or his eldest son Li Zezheng to shoot this time.But no matter what, many Hong Kong people still like to refer to Changshi's every move before home.

Changshi sold luxury projects at a low price this time has also caused various interpretations in the market.Some analysts pointed out that Singapore's funds entering Hong Kong's real estate reflect overseas optimistic about the Hong Kong property market; but the view of more people is that Changshi discounted the shipment, which reflects the back market of the Li family's light Hong Kong mansion.

In fact, the Hong Kong property market has indeed declined significantly in the past six months.The epidemic lasted for nearly three years, and the United States continued to raise interest rates. In recent months, the Hong Kong stock market has frustrated.The Central Plains CCL, which reflects the trend of major housing estates, has dropped to a new low of more than four and a half years.The property price index of the Hong Kong Restrictions Property Office in August also fell 2.26%on a monthly basis, a maximum single -month decline in 45 months since December 2018.

The results of the "Third Season Real Estate Intent Survey" released by Hong Kong Real Estate Intermediary Company in Hong Kong Real Estate showed that due to the large number of favorable factors on the market, more than 60 % of the people interviewed Hong Kong people to see the market outlook, the ratio is the past three and a half yearsThe new high; the nearly third of the respondents believe that the property prices in Hong Kong will fall by 5%to 10%in the next year. This ratio will also reach a record high since the second quarter of 2016.

Faced with the alarm number in the real estate market, the Hong Kong Government has recently begun to fine -tune the property market policy. For example, the Hong Kong Financial Administration has lowered the pressure test requirements, but it can still fail to relieve the pressure on property prices.Regardless of the micro -or macro level, the retreat of the Hong Kong property market is probably a high probability.

From the perspective of the international situation, Sino -US relations still have no signs of improvement. The war between the Russia and the Ukraine is more deteriorating, and it undoubtedly increases the downward pressure on the Hong Kong property market.

Internal, the Hong Kong economy has not recovered in the epidemic vitality. In addition, the United States raised interest rates again last month, prompting Hong Kong to start the interest rate hike cycle.situation.

The Hong Kong Chief Executive Li Jiachao has always emphasized the emphasis on housing problems. Earlier, Hong Kong people were looking forward to the first policy report released by the new SAR government in mid -October to increase the supply of land to suppress property prices.Interestingly, in recent months, Hong Kong and the international environment have changed sharply, and there is a trend of mountains and rain. More and more people have begun to demand the market instead of the property market.The sound of the sound is from one after another.

After all, more than one million families in Hong Kong have already repaired in the private residential market.For a group of owners, once the property depreciates sharply and negative assets will come, it will be a major "disaster" and will also cause major social turmoil.From this point of view, how to increase land supply and assist grass -roots citizens to buy business, but will not take too much, leading to a sharp decline in property assets, which has become the biggest challenge facing the Li family super government in the short term.