Guo Liangping: The Cold War Logic behind the Sino -US trade war

< />P>

Trial Time

The scale of trade war between China and the United States is unprecedented.So far, the two parties have levied tariffs on a total of $ 360 billion in goods, accounting for nearly half of the bilateral cargo trade.After a few rounds, China failed to sign a new trade agreement with the United States like Canada, Mexico, etc., and only reached a 90 -day ceasefire.However, it is very difficult to reach an agreement within 90 days, because the dispute between China and the United States far exceeds economic trade, and the trade war involves the factors of the Cold War.

The Cold War is a match between hostile camps in the ideological world. It is a competition between two worldviews, two sets of value, two world order and promising future. It uses all means other than war to curb and stifle each other.The old Cold War focused on the battlefield between the United States and the Soviet Union, which caused the common strategic interests between China and the United States. This is the basis for the reconciliation of China and the United States in the 1970s.At that time, China's economic aggregate accounted for only one percent of the world, and it was comprehensively behind the military, which pose a substantial threat to the United States.

The current situation is in the opposite. China is growing into a powerful opponent, and Russia is going downhill and the threat of non -growing far -growing. Instead, it may become the object of United to China.

The Cold War ended with a socialist camp overnight.Western countries have agreed that this is the victory of freedom and democracy and capitalism, and it is also a complete bankruptcy of communist experiments. They are full of confidence in liberalism.China's reform and opening up, the reason why incorporating the capitalist world economic system is welcomed by the West because the latter believes that after the comprehensive failure of China's political economy in the Mao era, it has to follow the Western road.

They look forward to China's peaceful evolution in the development of the economy, and eventually join the ranks of democratic countries like Taiwan and South Korea.For a long time, when Westerners mentioned the CCP, they often added a so -called Communist Party.

However, this is the real Communist Party.The take -off of the Chinese economy has not changed China's government, but has strengthened the Communist's dominant position, so that it has stronger power and more means to adhere to its own path.The financial turmoil in 2008 and the crisis of Western democratic politics caused by it greatly strengthened the CCP's confidence in its own system.Since the later period of Hu Jintao's administration, the CCP has begun to return to orthodox in ideology and rule, and has reached a new peak under the slogan that does not forget its original intention.

The failure of peaceful evolution has led to a major change in Western attitudes, and the theory of the New Cold War is very arrogant; the speech by US Vice President Pence on October 4th at the Hardon Institute was regarded as a declaration of the New Cold War.

But in all fairness, today's China and Mao Zedong era are very different.At least, the planned economy has long been died, and China has become an important part of the world capitalist economic system.So why is the logic of the Cold War restarting?

First of all, China's rise and globalization have a strong impact on the welfare society and democratic politics of developed countries.China ’s politically returning to the red orthodox, which is economically promoting globalization (Belt and Road is the latest version of globalization); the former threatens Western ideology orthodox, and the latter harms the economic and trade interests of the West.The former Soviet Union was outside the world capitalist system and could not harm the interests of the West from the inside, and the rigid ideology, bureaucratic system, and planned economy made it unpopular.The success of China in the world capitalist system enables it to promote the Chinese road and Chinese model of the Chinese solution and implement peaceful evolution for the West.

There is no self -reflection in the West

The vagueness of China and the United States has also caused misjudgment and conflict.The political and economic crisis in the West has not fundamentally shaken the basic ideas and values of the West. Western civilization is still considered the highest achievement of human civilization and has a moral high ground.They did not review the difficulties they encountered from themselves. Instead, they aimed at China and believed that it was China's unfair trade behavior that harmed their interests.

The vague region of China is not carefully sorted out the cause of the success of economic development. There is one -sidedness in the experience and lessons of the Qualification of the Soviet Communist Party: in general, the success of China is due to the superiority of the Communist Party's leadership and social system.So he returned blindly to red orthodox.Both sides have given up their efforts to seek common groundwork and return to their old habits.

For the West, a powerful red China is a huge threat.The capitalist system of freedom and democracy failed to assimilate it, but instead makes it rise into a heterogeneous force in this system, and is distorting and destroying the system.Under the banner of liberalism, it is not easy to oppose trade freedom and globalization assigned by it. It can only fight a trade war under fair trade.

On the other hand, under the banner of liberalism, it is familiar to the West, so the firepower is concentrated in Chinese politics, and the issues such as trade and intellectual property rights are attributed to China's system.The essence of the current trade war is that the United States and other Western countries want to drive China out of the free capitalist system, so the asking price is very high.It can be predicted that even if China has made great concessions, China and the United States barely reach an agreement between China and the United States, and subsequent frictions and conflicts will follow, and will occur more in other fields.The trade war is a form, but behind it is the logic of the Cold War.

Secondly, just 20 years after the Cold War ended, the Oriental camp has been completely destroyed MDash; MDASH; the Warsaw Convention Organization has disappeared, and more than half of the contracting countries have joined the Western camp.The Cold War structure of the Western camp, including Europe's NATO and the United States' defense treaty in Asia, was basically retained.The Western Cold Warriors are still alive, they won great victory, and naturally they were happy.In other words, for the West, the cold war state is relatively easy.

Finally, the most fundamental reason is the conflict of values.The environment for Americans makes them think that democracy and freedom (mainly include freedom of speech, freedom of association, freedom of religious belief), private property, human rights, and rule of law, which reflects human nature.Pursue.These basic values have become part of their psychological structure, and they are sincere to maintain these values.Most Americans do not know China, and it can be said that the Chinese system has surpassed their cognitive model.But they habitually use these basic values to understand and judge China and other countries.

Because these values are deeply rooted in people's hearts, it is the cornerstone of American society and culture that politicians will use universal values to be a weapon for political struggle.For example, they believe that human rights diplomacy can win the hearts of the hostile country and make the United States an ethical highland; they can receive the support of voters internally.Commercial Western media also caters to the cognitive structure of the public, and reports on China often adopt double standards.

Therefore, the Chinese believe that the Western countries are hypocritical. They sell universal value is bad intentions, trying to engage in color revolution, subvert the Chinese Communist regime and chaos China.Under the long -term publicity of official media, many Chinese have accepted this view; democracy and human rights have almost become derogatory words.

However, while exposing the hypocritical of Western politicians, this propaganda also ignored the Western people.Although human rights, diplomacy and universal value offensives have long been not spiritual in China, Western politicians are still happy, which shows that they really care about the needs of domestic politics, because these values are still moral authority among the people.China's anti -universal value is aimed at Western politicians, but offended the Western people (especially speech and freedom of faith), which caused them to have a bad image.

U.S. Vice President Pence's lecture at the Hudson Institute is to cater to the existing impression of the Chinese voters in MDASH; MDASH; continue from the Cold Warimpression.This is also the foundation of the new Cold War.

In the United States, from politicians to the people are worried that China ’s increasing national strength will eventually be used to threaten their core values, destroy their lifestyle, and overthrow the order they have established.This concern is a bit incredible for China, which has no exterior tradition.However, in the eyes of Western countries with the history of colonial and missionary and the burden of white people, it is normal.When people do not agree with your values and are unwilling to live under your dominant order, they will instinctively resist you. This is why the logic of the Cold War is involved in the trade war and other contradictions.

The author is a senior researcher at the East Asia Institute of the National University of Singapore

The essence of the current trade war is that the United States and other Western countries want to drive China out of the free capitalist system, so the asking price is very high.