Shen Jianguang: The US economic callback and the financial market have intensified. In addition, the real estate policy and market of China need to focus on, and how the two evolution will also become the key to determining the Chinese economy in 2019.
In 2018, China's economy has experienced internal and external distress, Sino -US trade frictions continue to upgrade. The domestic economy faces downlink pressure and difficulty in operating private enterprises, which has caused generally insufficient market confidence.Looking forward to 2019, can the situation be transferred?I mentioned that some positive signals are appearing in the reasons for exploring China's economy optimism in the reason for the optimism of China's economy.Help confidence.
However, can the Chinese economy achieve a sixth effect after the policies have the bottom of the policy?What other factors will become uncertainties affecting economic stability next year?The author believes that the increase in the U.S. economic callback and the financial market has intensified, and the real estate policy and market in China requires focus on how the two evolution will also become the key to determining the Chinese economy in 2019.
Be alert to the negative impact of the American economic deceleration
Thanks to Trump's strong tax reduction policy, the US economy grew in 2018 exceeding expectations.However, looking forward to 2019, with the decline of the US tax reform, the trouble of structural problems, and the risks of US politics, the US economy may have a downward trend, which will cause the US and even global markets.Influence.
Specifically, the one is that the tax reform dividend retirement will cause negative drag on the US economic growth next year.In 2018, the US economic growth rate exceeded expectations, 4.2%in the second quarter, and 3.5%in the third quarter. However, it was mainly related to the improvement of corporate profits caused by tax reform dividends. The low unemployment rate and increased consumption expenditure increased consumer expenditure increased.In November, the U.S. unemployment rate hit a new low in 50 years and reached 3.7%.At the same time, the PMI index reached a 14 -year high of the PMI index.However, with the disappearance of the benefits of tax reform next year and the negative impact of the trade war, the US fiscal policy space has become smaller and smaller, and the US economy may be under pressure.
The second is ten years of crisis. The structural problems of the US economy have not significantly changed, and the vitality of the US economy rebound in the US economy under the stimulus of currency dependence and tax reform policies is insufficient.For a long time, the low labor participation rate in the United States and poor infrastructure have restricted corporate investment. Although the previous US individual consumption has strong economic growth, the proportion of manufacturing in GDP has continued to decline.The Minutes of the Federal Reserve's December Bookmark showed that the Federal Reserve lowered its expectations for future US economic growth. It is expected that the US GDP expects to be 2.3%in 2019, which is 0.2 percentage points from September.
Third, the political division of the two parties in the United States has increased unprecedentedly, and a constraints on the recovery of the US economy.The US government officially closed on December 22 because the two parties' funding issues on the border wall repair plan were not reached.The closing of the federal government shows that the differences between the two parties between the United States are constantly increasing.In November this year, the Democratic Party won the House of Representatives in the midterm election. It is expected that the Trump policy will encounter greater obstacles in the future.The exacerbation of the two -party game next year will lead to an increase in U.S. economic policy uncertainty, and the implementation of Trump's infrastructure policy will also be more resistant and constrained.
If the US economy has changed from a strong recovery to a slowdown, it will affect the global market from multiple levels.For example, in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike path, it is expected to be more milder. At present, most of the market is expected to raise interest rates in the Fed in 2019 by 1-2 times, which may also make the US dollar trend also reversed. It is expected that the US dollar will be weakened in 2019 that will be weakened in weakening.This may be a favorable for emerging market countries, and the pressure on the devaluation of the RMB will also be slowed down or even appreciate.
In addition, whether the US financial market will accelerate the recovery still facing great uncertainty.The current U.S. stock indexes are high, which has shown strong imbalance features.Due to the progress of fundamentals and interest rate hikes, the US financial market has been obviously exploited since October.As of the closing of December 24th, the Standard 500 Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Index, and the Nasdaq Index fell 19.8%, 18.8%, and 23.6%from the year high, and have entered a technical bear market.The huge fluctuations in the US financial market highlight the panic of investors, and it is worthwhile whether this panic mood will spill.
Of course, the fluctuations in the US economy and financial markets may make Trump pay more attention to internal risks. It is precisely because of this consideration. It also has the need to promote the trade war with China in the short term. China is also active in the present.For example, the import of imports of soybeans and oil on the import of imports, and expressed its further open market, emphasizing that the principle of competitive neutrality, etc., laid the foundation for the Slow -release of the trade war in 2019.In the long run, we have to be vigilant that the upgrade of the game between China and the United States has extended from a trade war to a wider range of areas. Although the trade war can be avoided due to the win -win or double losses between China and the United States, China and the United States are politically, politically, and in politics, in politics, in politics,The differences in ideology and economic systems have made the game of the two countries have complexity and long -term.
Will real estate relax and their influence?
In recent years, China's real estate cycle has always been closely related to the Chinese economic cycle, and each round of stable growth policies cannot be separated from the relaxation of real estate policies.However, looking forward to 2019, will the real estate policy service and stable growth be loosened again?What impact will the changes in the real estate policy have on the Chinese economy?
From the perspective of the Central Economic Work Conference, the real estate policy in 2019 still follows the statement of the long -term mechanism of housing housing and building a healthy development mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market, which means that the current decision -making level will not launch a comprehensive relaxation of real estate to achieve the goal of steady growth.But even so, under the balance of risk prevention and steady growth, considering that the preliminary real estate regulation policy is too tight to avoid the negative dragging on the economy of real estate, through the fine -tuning of policies, thereby changing the preliminary real estate policy, and returning the real estate policy to neutrality.It is also possible to happen to the economic bottom.
For example, the Central Economic Work Conference also refers to the statement of real estate in the statement of real estate, and emphasizes the responsibility of the city government due to urban policies and classification. Combining the recent real estate regulation and adjustment of real estate in some cities, such as Heze canceled sales restrictions, Guangzhou Shenzhen lowered mortgage interest rates, and the interest rate of housing mortgage reduction, and the interest rate of housing mortgage, and the interest rate of housing loans, and the interest rate of housing loan, and the interest rate of housing loan, and the mortgage interest rate, and the mortgage interest rate, and the mortgage interest rate, and the mortgage interest rate, and the mortgage interest rate.Zhuhai relaxes purchase restrictions, and the author believes that this marginal adjustment has occurred.
In addition, the real estate regulation in the early stage has stepped on the emergency brakes to suppress the real estate bubble, but due to the severe policy, the demand for house purchase is also suppressed.In the future, the definition of supporting the first set of homes may be clearer to support the need to buy a house; at the same time, administrative means such as restrictions on purchase and sales also contrary to the marketization principles of marketization. In the context of speculative demand suppression and expected stability, some cities in the future in the futureIt is also likely to change this aspect.In addition, with the overall easing of the monetary policy environment, the mortgage interest rate will also decline accordingly.
In summary, the author expects that the main tone of the real estate policy next year will still be based on urban policies and fine -tuning. Considering the many risks of real estate bubbles on the economy, it is expected that large -scale relaxation policy adjustments will not be ushered in nationwide.Of course, unlike the previous steady growth power source, once the support of real estate comprehensive easing policies is lacking, the effect of whether the policy of this round of policies can achieve the effect of preventing the short -term economic decline is yet to be tested.
In my opinion, in the context of limited real estate policy space, if you want to achieve six stabilization goals, in addition to macro policy adjustments, this time you need to introduce more substantial reform policies than ever before, and accelerate the pace of landing in order to release it through the release of the release.The way of institutional dividends to prevent economic stalls.The author believes that the economic system reform, The reform of the land system, the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, and the acceleration of opening up are exactly the focus of reform and opening up. If it can be promoted, it will help to reverse the dilemma of the short -term policy, make more explorations from the long -term system, reverse expectations, and stabilize the economy.
Note: This article only represents the author's views
