Many economists believe that in the face of epidemic prevention restrictions, trade landslides, and other global unfavorable factors, it is difficult for the Hong Kong economy to achieve expansion this year.When the final value of the local GDP (GDP) in the second quarter on Friday, the Hong Kong government's potential will reduce the forecast of the annual GDP growth rate.This will be the second time this year, and government officials have reduced the growth range to 1 to 2%in May.
According to Bloomberg, economists have become more pessimistic about Hong Kong this year.According to Bloomberg's latest quarterly survey, they now predict that GDP will stop growing this year, while the previous estimation is 1%.The estimated median value of economic growth in the third and fourth quarters also lowered from 2.3%and 4.1%to 1.8%and 2.9%, respectively.
In addition to the epidemic prevention measures limited the activities of enterprises and consumers, Hong Kong also faces challenges such as rising interest rates and global trade.In order to fight inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates many times this year, and Hong Kong, which implemented the contact rate system, was forced to follow up.
In addition, the epidemic and restrictions on mainland China have also damaged Hong Kong's trade.After the double -digit growth was recorded every month last year, as the mainland demand declined, Hong Kong's exports shrinking in May and June this year.
Chen Maobo, director of the Financial Secretary, said that considering these issues, Hong Kong's "inevitable" will reduce the annual growth forecast this month.The people's escape from strict epidemic prevention measures in Hong Kong's record decline in population
Epidemic prevention restrictions have also caused a record of talent outflow.Government data released on Thursday showed that in the year as of June 30, the population of Hong Kong decreased by 1.6%year -on -year and the total number dropped to about 7.29 million.
Hong Kong did have some good news this week.The Chief Executive Li Jiachao announced that the hotel's hotel's hotel isolation will be shortened from seven days to three days, and then a four -day health monitoring will be performed.However, the existence of the isolation period itself has in sharp contrast to Hong Kong and other parts of the world.
Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist in the Asia -Pacific region of France Foreign Trade, said: "Don't expect the isolation time to shorten the world, because this will not change the world. Obviously, the economic performance is very bad.Personal flow is a problem, especially for more important cross -border personnel flows for Hong Kong. "
Some economists suspect that the Hong Kong economy may even shrink in 2022, which will be the third time in four years.Fitch lowered Hong Kong's annual economic growth forecast from 1%to 0.5%this week.
Fitch believes that although the restrictions on epidemic prevention have been loosened and the recent economic activities have improved slightly, "the continuous social management and control still hinder the economic recovery. We believe that before the mainland relaxes similar policies, Hong KongThese control measures may not be completely canceled. "
