Since May 12, the Hong Kong HKMA has shot 29 times according to the contact rate mechanism for a total of HK $ 20164 million.The market is worried that the funds that maintain the Lianhui system will be exhausted this month, and the Hong Kong dollar may be risky to decoupn with the US dollar.
After the United States further raised interest rates last month, Hong Kong's US interest differences have expanded, prompting the recent speed of funds to flow out of Hong Kong to accelerate, and the market has once again paid attention to whether Hong Kong will cancel the exchange rate system.However, some analysts believe that the current HKD and the US dollar are greater than disadvantages to Hong Kong's interests. I believe that the exchange rate system will not change in the short term.
Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has continued to weaken in recent months, and often hovers at the level of 7.85 weak recipes.The Hong Kong Financial Authority was re -entered the market on Thursday (August 4), and was sold for HK $ 14.161 billion (S $ 2.487 billion) in New York. The amount was the largest since May 12 this year.Hong Kong's banking system summarized the Yu Friday (5th) further to HK $ 129.293 billion.
Since May 12, the Hong Kong Monetary Administration has shot 29 times in accordance with the contact rate mechanism in the contact rate mechanism since the Hong Kong dollar has repeatedly triggered the guarantee of the weak recipes for a total of HK $ 20164 million.
Data show that in order to stabilize the currency value, the Hong Kong Government launched the contact rate system in 1983 and continued to this day.According to the system, the Hong Kong HKMA promises that if the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate of the US dollar reaches 7.75, the Hong Kong dollar will be sold to the US dollar to rise to the exchange rate; if it reaches 7.85, buy the Hong Kong dollar to sell the US dollar to reduce the exchange rate. In this wayThe dollar stabilizes around 7.8.The Lianhui system guarantees the stability of the Hong Kong dollar currency value and also guarantees that Hong Kong has become an international financial center.
But the United States has raised interest rates sharply in recent months. The Hong Kong dollar has continued to expand in Hong Kong's US interest margin.It will be exhausted, and the Hong Kong dollar may have the risk of decoupling with the US dollar.
In the past, the U.S. hedge fund crocodile and Hayman Capital, the chief investor of Hayman Capital, who had threatened to sell empty Hong Kong dollars.He revealed to the Japanese media that he was selling Hong Kong dollars and believed that the Hong Kong Lianhui system could not maintain a linked US dollar, and boldly estimated that the Hong Kong Lianhui system would be re -evaluated in the next year, and Hong Kong dollar would fall by 30%to 40%.
But Hong Kong Chief Executive Li Jiachao emphasized in an exclusive interview with the Hong Kong News Agency on Wednesday that the SAR government is definitely confident that the exchange rate system will not change.Hong Kong has experienced many financial turmoils, the system has continuously improved and optimized, and in the experience, it is still in the experience. The competitiveness advantage of defense ability is still there.
Li Jiachao talked about financial security on the same day that Hong Kong's fiscal reserves and foreign exchange reserves are definitely enough to respond to foreign sniper. There are a series of measures in terms of financial security. Of course, there are some inconvenient methods to avoid allowing the other party to avoid it.He pointed out that after reviewing the entire financial system, the security factor has improved, and he is very confident in the ability to deal with financial security.
Analysis: The contact rate system will not change in the short term
Zhou Xian, a Hong Kong financial columnist Zhou Xian, was interviewed by Lianhe Zaobao that due to the strong US dollar, capital has continued to flow out of Hong Kong recently.After falling to about HK $ 100 billion, Hong Kong dollar interest rates will rise, which will narrow Hong Kong's US interest differences, which will attract funds back to Hong Kong. "
Zhou Xian said that Hong Kong's contact rate has been established for about 40 years. During the period of Hong Kong's financial market, many major accidents have occurred, but Hong Kong has not canceled the exchange rate, because the US dollar is always the largest currency of international transactions;Being able to openly and free exchanges, Hong Kong, as a base for foreign capital, holds a large number of US dollar asset reserves, is also beneficial to mainland China.
He said that no exchange rate system is absolutely safe.In the long run, Hong Kong may cancel the exchange rate. The Hong Kong dollar is changed from the US dollar to the RMB. However, after the renminbi can be exchanged publicly, Hong Kong may first linked Hong Kong dollar with a package of currencies such as the RMB during the transition.
