Early
Jingqiang Xinyun
Save money and saves the down payment, pay the mortgage on time every month. I did not expect that a few years have passed. I did not wait until Anle Wo, and the money would not come back.In helplessness, some Chinese home buyers have recently boarded the risk of the "blacklist" of the dishonesty, and collectively announced the suspension of mortgage repayment.
The "stop loan tide" began in late June.Due to the delay of the development of the real estate, the owners of Hengda Longting Building in Jingdezhen City, Jiangxi Province issued a compulsory loan notice.The owners said that if the project did not fully resume work before October 20 this year, it would stop repaying house loans.
The "stop loan tide" spreads very fast.According to the latest report released by the real estate research institution Yiju Research Institute's Think Tank Center, as of the 16th of this month, at least 271 similar loan notifications have appeared in various parts of China.These home buyers come from different regions, the most in Henan, Hunan, and Hubei; from the city, Zhengzhou topped the list, and the owners of 32 projects issued a notice of loan.
Although"Holding the group" suspending loans is only a small part of the Chinese housing army, this storm has made the property market that was originally sluggish.This is also another turbulence faced by the Chinese real estate market after the debt crisis of the real estate company last year, and the scope of this impact may be wider.
In addition to the social and people's livelihood issues brought by the "bad tail building" buyer's house and the wealth, the "stop loan tide" also caused the outside world to worry about spillover risks, causing systemic financial risks.
China real estate and financial systems are deeply bundled, and real estate loans are also the main body of commercial loans for many banks.According to the data of the People's Bank of China, as of the end of last year, the house loan of the Bank of China system was as high as 38 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below, S $ 784 billion).Guangfa Securities estimates that about 2 trillion yuan of loans may be affected by the owner's forced suspension.
The outbreak of "stop loan tide" is closely related to the downturn in the real estate market.The pre -sale system implemented by China since 1994 has largely solved the problem of lack of money when the real estate enterprise development project.Over the years, many Chinese housing companies have continuously expanded leverage through debt to raise debt, and operate with the high turnover model of "landing, starting, pre -sale, and land acquisition".When the property market goes smoothly, real estate companies are like a never -stop making money; once the property market is sluggish, the problem will be exposed.
Under the policy tone of the policy of "housing does not speculate", the official high -pressure regulation of the real estate market in the past few years; because of the concerns of the debt issues of housing companies, it also sacrifices the "three red lines" to control liabilities.The housing companies are getting tighter and tighter, and it is difficult to "demolish the east wall to replenish the west wall" as in the past.
After the "bad tail building" became a debt crisis, the real estate industry has been concentrated again in the real estate industry's long -term high leverage, high debt, and high turnover model.
The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission responded to the "suspension of loan tide" twice a week, and released the "open water faucet" signal on the evening of the 17th."Investment"; "Effectively meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate companies."
Compared with the outbreak of Evergrande's debt crisis a year ago, the Chinese regulatory authorities' actions were significantly faster.This shows that the official is highly vigilant about "stop loan tide", fearing that this storm may make the "gray rhinos" in virtue, resulting in the spread of other businesses in the bank, becoming the first bone card to overthrow the stability of the financial system.
It is worth noting that the time point of this "bad tail building" problem is just as the economic situation in China is severe and the property market is sluggish.
Under the repeated impact of the epidemic, the Chinese economy faces the most difficult moment after the Wuhan epidemic in 2020, and the 5.5 % economic growth goal of the year will lose.The real estate industry that has always been an important pillar of the economy, and has experienced a period of depth.Although the regulation of the property market frequently loosen the market in various places, the amount of investment in real estate development, the sales and sales of commercial housing in the first half of the year still declined.
This situation puts the official into a dilemma.If you want to get involved in solving the problem of bad tail buildings, you will involve who pays money. Whether it is the central government or the local finance, it is now stretched to fill the pierced power.In addition, this also means that the financial regulatory authorities have to relax their credit and loosen the liabilities and deleveraging measures that have been implemented in the past.
If the official is attentive, insist on deleveraging the real estate industry, the problem of rotten tail buildings will be fermented.Once the snowball is getting bigger and bigger, it is likely that the property market will face an unbearable shock.This will not only further impact the difficulty of recovery, but may even cause greater social and political risks.
Before the 20th CPC National Congress of the Communist Party of China was held in the second half of the year, any signs that could cause unstable were officially unwilling to see.
Some people in the industry pointed out that after the debt crisis broke out last year, some real estate companies had a game of "crying poor" and policy; when economic growth was weak, officials were particularly sensitive to social stability and political risks.It is not ruled out that individual developers deliberately "lying down" in order to "abduct" the policy.
Regardless of whether this conspiracy theory is true, it is an indisputable fact that real estate has been kidnapped in China's economy and society for a long time.Under the epidemic, China's economy has slowed down, and concerns about the property market from all walks of life show that the deep binding relationship between the economy and real estate has not changed much.From the perspective of this "suspension of loan", it is not only the economy tied to real estate, but also in all aspects of Chinese society. It is difficult to break the logic and development pattern of the real estate industry over the years.
