Trump's trade policy once again sounds alert number: Japan's second largest Asian export market in the United States will gradually implement the open market to multiple US agricultural product competitors on December 30 and February 1 next year, respectively.Measures will fight against the competitive advantage of American agricultural products.
After the Sino -US trade war, American agricultural representatives have stated that there is no lesson in the Japanese market in the Japanese market.
The United States faces two major crises within the month of the US export advantage of Japan
The total value of the United States exported agricultural products to Japan reached 11.9 billion US dollars in 2017, accounting for 25%of the Japanese market, and higher than the 13%of the entire EU. It shows that under the agricultural protection policy of Japanese products in Japan, it is actually compared to other than others.The country also has competitive advantages.
However, these advantages will be in danger of death.After the United States took the initiative to withdraw from the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) last year, Japan's leading links including Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Chile and other countries, continuing to promote the TPP's free trade cooperation.; Japan will also reduce tariffs on state -exemption and exemption in the TPP area and relax import quotas, making their agricultural products more competitive.
In addition, the Free Trade Agreement between Japan and the European Union will be implemented on February 1 next year. Japan will also open the agricultural products market in France, the Netherlands and other countries in the EU (It is worth noting that the Netherlands is a large agricultural technology country, and its agricultural productsThe total exports are the second largest in the world, followed by the United States), which will further exacerbate the pressure of US agricultural exports.
The crisis is lost before the business of the American farmers
The U.S. Meat Export Federation (U.S. Meat Export Federation) stated that once the TPP and Japan -Europe Free Trade Protocol will be implemented, and the total value of American meat exports will reduce at least 1 billion US dollars per year in the next 5 years.Among the agricultural products in the United States, there are projects that have been targeted by tariffs to fight against US steel and aluminum tariffs. The export volume in October has fallen 74%compared with the same period last year, which shows its impact.
Although trade negotiations are currently under the United States and Japan, and Japan is likely to open its agricultural product market, the two parties continue to rub on issues such as US car export surplus, unless Trump suddenly accepts TPP clauses like TPPThe negotiations between the two parties may continue for a long time.
Unfortunately, time does not wait for people.Some American pork producers have pointed out that its export performance has become worse, because its long -term customers have begun to establish a new supply chain to make a profit for the future from Japan's reduction and exemption policy.
After a significant loss of American farmers, it may gradually lose its exit to other countries.
Multilateral cooperation counterattack Trump's United States No. 1
In the face of the momentum of large -scale steel and aluminum tariffs in the United States, Japan knows that its strength is really hard -working, so it has not followed most countries to impose tariffs on American agricultural products to retaliate. InsteadSuch as TPP, Japan -Europe Free Trade Agreement, and Agreement with China, ASEAN and other regional comprehensive economic partnerships (RCEP).
Therefore, the current pressure of the Japanese export market for American farmers can be regarded as a multilateralist anti -splitting of Trump's first diplomacy: Trump has always opposed the international cooperation framework of multilateralism. One of the major reasons is that he wants to use oneFor one -to -one negotiation model, the US economic strength and market size are forced to meet the requirements of the United States.The system excludes the United States outside, causing Trump's heart to overwhelm the calculation of people.
Of course, Trump can imitate the practice of tariffs on China, and continue to apply for gold aid to American farmers.However, these practices are to cure the standards and not the basics: the export market is lost day by day, and the more close and connected countries of the world gradually loses the rapid resolution of the movement of the US trade dispute. The United States is willing to return to the multilateral negotiation table unless they are willing to return to the multilateral negotiating table, otherwise they will only be only on the table.It will be self -sufficient, and it will be damaged by self -recruitment.
Source: Hong Kong 01 website
Written article: Ye Dehao
