Three variables that have affected cross -strait relations for a long time: evolution of international systems, US policy adjustments, and cross -strait interaction, each exerting different effects.During the Cold War, Taiwan was affiliated with the United States leadership. The Free Democratic Group was not exchanged between the two sides of the strait. In the United States, the United States was balanced, and the normalization of relations with Beijing was used to build diplomatic relations.Through the Taiwan Relations Law and the United States and China Journalism, Washington expresses the basic position of peaceful exchanges between cross -strait, dialogue and negotiation to resolve disputes, that is, the position that does not actively intervenes, but unilaterally strengthen the US -Taiwan relations without stimulating the United States to stimulate the United StatesThe general direction of reconciliation.
As of the third Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, the United States sent aircraft carriers to intervene and clearly expressed the strategic bottom line of Washington: maintaining the current situation of peace in Taiwan.Since then, the Taiwanese party rotation is ruling by the DPP, which affects Taiwan's internal unified monopolis.Beijing once tried to manage the Taiwan Strait in the United States to curb the separation of Taiwan, and the United States was unwilling to share the leadership of the Taiwan Strait.Wait until the rise of the Chinese economy and enhance the global influence of diplomacy and military strength, after 2017, Beijing has adopted a double push strategy to Taiwan: to promote the peaceful development of cross -strait, to promote the complete unity of the motherland, how to weaken the US factors to intervene in the Taiwan Strait, and become a globalization of China to promote the globalizationThe main topics also affect the interaction between the three sides of the United States, China, and Taiwan.
First of all, Trump's strategic thinking, how to quickly practice campaign to commit to the United States priority, develop the economy, and make the people feel, and to create a chip that is conducive to re -election as the main strategic goal.In terms of international security, Beijing is the source of the main national security threat. In 2019, it will continue to confront the US -China tariffs, as well as the dispute between the leading authority of the key technology industry chain.Through the freedom of navigation of the Gonghai, the sovereignty's demands for the establishment of seven islands and reefs in the South China Sea to the South China Sea, and using the Indo -Pacific strategic military alliance mechanism to restrict the route of routes on the China Maritime Silk Road.
Secondly, in mainland China ... Under the stage of strong rule and entering the first century -old goal of establishing the first party, how to smoothly and stabilize the modernization of socialist in 2035, and the construction of the physicalization mechanism that continues to deepen the Belt and Road Initiative should beImplementation after the 2nd International Cooperation Forum in 2019.On the one hand, it can offset the pressure of the US -China trade war, and it can also increase Beijing's global influence.
Third, in Taiwan, the strategic goal of Cai Yingwen's pursuit of re -election has not changed. The key is how to deepen the effectiveness of the current stage of reform, master administrative resources through governing advantages, and gently cooperate with the US economic and trade and tariff war.Facing the situation of the local princes surrounded the central government after the nine -in -one election, the deadlock of the institutionalization relationship between the two sides of the strait after 2019 will not soothe, and the Beijing side will also be limited and indirectly activate those exchanges and benefit relationships of the 1992 consensus county government.Essence
The previous international security strategy of Taiwan focused on the priority of Hezhong, Michemore, and Friendship. Faced with the year when the Presidential Election of the Presidential Election in 2019, Washington did not oppose the concern of various candidates.Become a negative factor for election campaign.
In short, Taiwan should be able to compete in the United States and China to become a cheap cheat, create and accumulate chips on the balance between the two powerful powers, adhere to the strategic balance, equidistance thinking, and play strategic communication between the United States and China between the United States and China.Energy can continue to maintain the status quo of stability and development, and strive for the opportunity to interact with cross -strait interaction with cross -strait co -profit interaction.
(Author Weng Mingxian, full -time professor of the Institute of International Affairs and Strategy of Tamkang University in Taiwan, Chairman of the Taiwan Strategic Research Society)
