There are several discussions about whether the United States and China entered the Xunxidd trap in Taipei in December. This topic has actually conducted 2 or three years in the United States and China. However, due to the Sino -US trade war this yearEssenceHarvard University professor of Harvard University, who proposed the theory of Xiu's trap, said in Taipei that the trade war is the hegemony prelude between the old -fashioned power and the rising power. Although there is no such trap in the world, if the big country has repeatedly misjudged strategies, it would be.Maybe you dig your trap.He further said that China and the United States may soon be in a large -scale, new cold war with China and the United States.

Ke Weilin, another Harvard Professor and Chinese historical expert, was interviewed in Taipei, but he pointed out that the United States and China not only would not fall into a trap, but also would not have a new cold war.His point is that from the Sino -Vietnam War in 1979 to the present, this Chengping period provided the best peace and prosperity environment. There is no enemy in China. The only threat from North Korea is actually unpredictable.

Furthermore, from the perspective of China and the United States, it is completely difficult to imagine that any country's interests will be consolidated through the war.As for the impossible of the New Cold War, it is because the United States and China have more common interests than the past, and the world is different from the past.

The view of Zhang Zhongmou, the founder of TSMC, was also disclosed during this time. He said that the US -China trade war should find a solution, but the trade war is just a prelude.Going towards the Xiu's trap, the most extreme result of detonating the actual war.The consequences of war are too terrible, so leaders of the two countries will use wisdom to avoid the occurrence of war.

The Xiu's trap of Aireson is based on historical models. The advantage is that the model has awareness and interpretation, but the disadvantage is that the model must have exceptions.The most prominent exception is the 40 years of the United States and the Soviet Union, but they are hovering on the edge of the trap, and there is no direct military conflict.We can ask like this: Does the fear of nuclear war have caused this theoretical model to interpret at least the large -scale war between the two strongs?

Ke Weilin's discussion is strong. He emphasizes that the common interests of China and the United States are extensive, which is different from the US, Soviet (and the United States, Russia today).Anyone can see that China and the United States are highly integrated with each other, and the mutual benefit of economic and trade finance is just slightly unbalanced.If one party seeks the destruction of the other, it cannot be successful first, and then it cannot be consolidated, and then it may shake the government foundation. Therefore, the investor Buffett said half a year ago: Two smart countries will not go to a fool.To put it bluntly, the theme of the Sino -US game is actually a game of strength and influence. The aim of the trade war launched by President Trump is to promote zero tariffs, zero barriers, and zero subsidies to obtain economics and to obtain economics and to obtain economics and zero subsidies.Realization of political interests.This is not a struggle for you to die.

Looking at Ke Weilin's description of the environment of the times, it is precisely in line with China's important strategic opportunity period.In 2002, the Chinese Communist Party proposed that the first 20 years of the 21st century, it is an important strategic opportunity period for China to be closely seized.Impact.

2018 is the year when the mainland protrudes the major domestic and foreign changes. How do we see how to respond in Beijing with the highest economic conference in Beijing?This year's Central Economic Work Conference has just been completed. The summary issued on the 21st emphasized that China is still in and will be in a period of important strategic opportunities.President of Mainland China ... In the last two years of the original opportunity period, the long -term nature of the opportunity period was announced, which obviously belonged to a key announcement, showing his strategic determination.Zhang Zhongmou's optimism is found.

(Author Zhou Tianwei, American lawyer)