Xu Jin: The three major factors of the trade war, low returns and soft stratums not only affect 2018, but it is even more important in 2019.From an individual and investment perspective, what does this mean?

Every year is considered by economists to be the most difficult year, and 2019 is no exception.Some people think that this is the worst year in the past ten years, and some people think that this is the best year in the next decade.

For economists in investment banks, 2018 is a year of reviewing the great narrative. In the past, the technical indicators of the past seemed a little powerless. From the chaos in the Middle East to the sky, it plummeted to the Cold War game.In the future, the uncertainty in 2019 is self -evident. Analysts are cautious and optimistic about the thousands of years, and some people ask for help with the Kangbo prediction of the Cycotic King, and even the Book of Changs will begin to appear.

At the end of the year, the most important thing in the financial community will undoubtedly firstly be the first to celebrate the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up. On December 18, the theme speech was set, and each step of reform and opening up is not easy. In the future, it will definitely face such risks and challenges.Unimaginable stormy waves.The announcement of the Central Economic Work Conference in followed by the official text also pointed out some examples that the world has faced a major change in a hundred years.

It seems that every eighth or ninth, the Chinese economy always changes.The Chinese characters are vast and profound, and the monetary policy is only stable and neutral, and it can be different, and the crisis is always considered to be critical and organic. Even the Central Economic Conference also emphasizes the danger and turning the crisis.As an observer of the Chinese economy for many years, I have sorted out three major keywords in accordance with the convention, namely the trade war, low returns, and soft -class mdash; mdash; these factors not only affect 2018, but also will be more important in 2019.

One of the keywords: trade war

Looking back at 2018, the biggest keyword is naturally the Sino -US trade war. This change will naturally affect the Chinese road.why would you say so?Because China's economic achievements in the past and forty years are the result of reform and opening up. The importance of joining the world economic system is self -evident, and the Sino -US trade conflict is not born because of a Trump came to power. This is behind China.After joining the world economic system, a series of contradictions broke out.

At the beginning of the year, I participated in a financial TV show. When talking about the largest black swan in the future, the mainstream opinions of the market at that time were still tightening of the Fed. I mentioned that the black swan may be challenged by the multilateral trading system represented by the WTO.At that time, even scholars who specialized in trade felt that it was unlikely.Who would have thought that in less than a year, this worry has already been presented with ten times.

The global trend rises rapidly, as well as ebb.When trade frictions were initially revealed, it did not attract enough attention. It even thought that it was just the political flower recruitment of President Trump Mdash; mdash; mdash; similar misunderstandings in Sino -US trade negotiations are not uncommon.In terms of interests, in addition to the substantial conflict of interest, China and the United States are the gap between the goals of both sides. The global order understanding the two is not consistent.In the Xu Jin's economic man column in May, I pointed out that the industrial upgrading and technological progress after China's reform and opening up cannot be separated from the acceptance of international economic and trade order. The US position transformation can be described as a change in 40 years.Not everyone thinks this is a major change.

Two of keywords: low returns

The change, that is, the timing of the change, or the node of historical changes, which triggers the second keyword, that is, a low return.This is not completely from external shocks, and it is mainly based on the natural results of high -speed growth in the past decades.From an economic perspective, China has entered an era of reduced investment returns.The trade war, deleveraging, and L -type growth may be the keywords of media headlines, but for the big and small people, it is more important to be a hot news at a time, but to grasp the long -term trend of the economy.Enterprises operate personal career in the future.

The return rate of economic investment will be reduced from enterprises to personal levels.According to a report from Germany, 93%of the world's assets in 2018 fell, which is the highest proportion since the record in 1901.

Even if the hot sharing economy is temporarily coming to an end, from Didi being controlled, to the end of the media from the media, and the broken shared bicycles that no one cares about at the end of the year, it is the best portrayal of the dilemma of entrepreneurship in this era.For investors who are concerned about domestic, Chinese retail investors should still remember the A -share plunge in 2018, and a more hidden change comes from the new regulations for asset management in 2018.While breaking the rigid redemption, this provision also means that the era of conspiracy to obtain stability and earnings in the future has ended.These changes not only affect financial institutions, enterprises, and even investors that depend on rigid payments, but more importantly, it means that the wind direction has changed, the era of easy money is over, and it is more optimistic.

Keywords three: soft class

If the impact of the trade war means changes in international order and the low economic return means that the trend of China's economy is coming, what does this mean for the public?So in the future, we will usher in a soft -class society.

When I proposed this concept for the first time in 2018, some people misunderstood as unequal to increase. In fact, the main points of the soft class are not the solidification or unequal to the class, but the mdash; mdash;Soft, I used to list eleven characteristics in the public account Xu Jin's economic man, which will not be listed here again, and the biggest feature is that the middle class status of the soft class is unstable.

On New Year's Day in 2018, I mentioned in the first half of China ’s middle -class anxiety in 2018: China’ s middle -class will be more anxious in 2018, but after many years, they will understand that it is also a lucky to delay anxiety.Some people did not understand the last sentence at the time, and it seemed to sound a bit contradictory. Now when reality encounters setbacks, everyone gradually understands that if the anxiety in China in the past often comes from Xiao Fu, then their anxiety in the future will keep their classes more out of place.Essence

In the future, for those who have just become relatively rich in Chinese cities, more people will enter a soft -level situation.The macro environment faced in the future is not so friendly. In the past, the time to increase leverage to get high returns can basically come to an end.As the Great Times changes, if you are still dreaming of counterattacks, it is likely not only to be anxious, but also continue to pay the IQ tax.

What do these three keywords mean?

From the perspective of investment, it follows the trend. The mysterious writing is a life that is a Kangbo. In the words of the Chinese people, it is like a friend's message in the public account Xu Jin's economic man.It can last for decades of economic growth period, and may be dragged down by the overall development of society. If it is born in a long -term low -growth (stagnation) environment, it will probably be unequalThe negative effects of war in war have been negatively affected for a long time.

This is true, that is, heroes and beauties, they must not be caught in the times, so they still recognize the general trend to seek the optimal results, or the second excellent choice.

I review the judgment at the beginning of the year, not how accurate I am, but just sorting out the key changes in 2018 and emphasizing the difficulty of prediction.In fact, the trade war in 2018 is difficult to accurately expect.What I want to explain is that at the key node of the changes in the times, even for professionals, it may not be possible to perceive.A few people, most people are just passively rolling up and down the waves of the times. A few people can become a wave of waves in the wave of the times.

In the era of change, it is necessary to be a understanding person. Even if you are in a soft class, the best strategy is to recognize reality, reduce expectations, and do not give up hope.This article only represents the author's own point of view. The author is also the founder of the Economy Reading Club. Recently, it is not lost in the publication.