Tell you a rule that you ca n’t make money when you buy a house now.The chairman of CCB, Tian Guoli, was amazing at the 20th Peking University Guanghua New Year Forum on the 22nd.

Does this mean that when buying a house now, it will become a pick -up man?So, will house prices rise in the future?In the future, what will the real estate market trend?

The house is really covered

This is the expression of Tian Guoli's today at the Guanghua Forum of Peking University, and it is also the conclusion that he has a house of about 1.1 houses from Chinese people.So isn't it enough to live a house alone?Why are there still many people who don't have a house to live?

Tian Guoli explained that the vacancy rate of Chinese houses is relatively high.One -third of the United States is rented by renting, and more than 40 % of German people rely on renting a house. Our rental market is not perfect compared with.

Tian Guoli pointed out that about 60 or 70 % of residential asset allocation is in real estate.As of the third quarter of this year, the scale of real estate credit reached about 38 trillion yuan, accounting for 28%of the overall credit scale.Judging from the trend, the proportion of real estate in new credit reached about 40%, indicating that funds are still flowing into real estate on a large scale.

Tian Guoli believes that the reason why the house is always fried is because the house has the same financial attributes as gold and stock.But houses and gold, stocks, derivatives, Bitcoin and other financial products are different.In the former, you can fry with money, no money can be fired, but housing, you have to buy it if you have money and no money.To make housing not fry, it is to cultivate the housing leasing market, so that all excitement, consumption habits and financial resources are inclined to housing leasing.

In the future, Xia Dan, a researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said that the growth rate of market transactions continues to decline, which may also be the trend of transactions next year, but the structure may be adjusted.Under the premise of living in the house, the transaction volume may increase slightly if the policy environment of the first- and second -tier cities is eased; the transactions of third -tier and fourth -tier cities that have lost their strong policy may return to the downward channel.

House prices in hot cities have declined significantly

Previously, the 70 large and medium -sized cities in November released by the Bureau of Statistics showed that the average price of new commercial housing prices increased by 0.98%month -on -month, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from October; 10.25%year -on -year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from October.

Xia Dan said that from a structure point of view, housing prices in first -tier cities are still stable, and housing prices in second -tier and third -tier cities are relatively prominent.However, after a lack of shed reform monetization resettlement and demand for a period of time, the third -tier cities have a large risk of downlinks.

Overall, the year -on -year rise is still rising, but the month -on -month decrease.The performance of urban performance is different, especially in Xiamen and Wenzhou. House prices have fallen in cities before.Shenzhen has declined year -on -month and year -on -year, and it is inseparable from its housing policy.

In this round of house prices, there are many cases of high quilts.Some Weibo Blog said that the house bought at 6.4 million yuan on February 7, 2017, sold for 5.618 million yuan on November 25 this year, and lost more than 1.3 million.

Persist in differential housing and not speculating differentiated regulation will be more obvious

In the medium and long term, the investment function of real estate is expected to be stripped away, but there is no need to question the government's determination to regulate the real estate market. In the future, fine -tuning or the main path for categorian policy, classification guidance.

Judging from the statement of real estate last year and this year's Central Economic Work Conference, it still emphasizes the need to build a long -term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market and insist on housing and not frying.

Real estate regulation is very sufficient at the 2017 Central Economic Work Conference.This year may not be reopening last year, it is not necessary.Yang Weimin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the CPPCC National Committee, said that everyone may be too concerned about the house, so some interpretations believe that the regulation is to relax.The policy of real estate regulation has not changed. The key is to establish a long -term mechanism to promote the healthy development of real estate.

From the perspective of many industry experts, there is no speculative space in the future real estate market.The statement of this year's economic work conference on real estate policy is more concise and powerful than last year, and sacrificed the killer mdash; mdash; consolidated the main responsibility of the city government.

Liu Xiaoguang, an associate professor of the National Institute of National Development and Strategy of Renmin University of China, believes that consolidating the responsibility of the main body of the city government means that the implementation of the implementation of the real estate regulation policy for the first time from the central level to the level of the city, which is not only conducive to the pre -adjustment and fine -tuning according to the actual situation.It can also avoid the ups and downs in the implementation of real estate policies.

When the local city leader becomes the main body of responsibility to grasp the regulation of real estate, the large speculation space in the real estate market will no longer exist, and it will fully allow the growth of rigid demand for the market and the construction of a housing security system.In the future, cities with rapid urbanization and greater attractive population will be more likely to achieve the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.Liu Xiaoguang said.

Tax reform releases the signal of tilt to the leasing market

The temporary deduction of personal income tax is officially released a few days ago. Among them, the expression of housing rental also reflects the total tone of regulation and control of housing housing.It is clear that you can only enjoy the special additional deduction of the first home loan. The rent deduction of 1500 yuan/month is also higher than 1,000/month, showing the control orientation.

In the housing rental section, the temporary measures point out that renting houses in the main working cities and at the same time meet the following conditions, including:

(1) I and my spouse do not have their own housing in the main cities;

(2) Housing rents have actually occurred;

(3) I and their spouse did not enjoy the special additional deduction policy for housing loan interest during the same tax year.In other words, the two -deduction policy of housing loan interest and housing rent can only be enjoyed, and it cannot be enjoyed at the same time.

At the same time, the method is clear:

(1) Municipal, provincial capital (capital) cities, planned cities, and other cities determined by the State Council: 1,500 yuan per month;

(2) Cities with a registered population of more than 1 million people except the above cities: 1100 yuan per month;

(3) In addition to the above -mentioned cities, cities with a population of no more than 1 million (inclusive) in the city's jurisdiction: 800 yuan per month.

For example, Yang Qinqin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Financial Research, said that the rent deduction of the rent deduction in large and medium -sized cities has increased.The temporary method only adjusts the amount of rent deduction standards, providing a higher deduction amount for renters in large and medium -sized cities, up to 1,500 yuan per month, more in line with reality, higher than the amount of tax on -loan interest tax deduction,50%of the taxpayers who really have no housing for the time being, which fully reflects the total tone of regulation and control of housing and housing, shows that the government's encouragement of rental behavior and ensure basic living needs.

Prevent residents' wealth from being hollowed out by real estate

Recently, the National Development Institute of Renmin University of China has issued a report clearly that Chinese consumers have risen sharply in real estate destocking, and the consumption foundation has been severely weakened.A new round of destocking the useful funds of the relatively weak savings deposits are basically invested in the real estate market.The report believes that the current residents' wealth is basically emptied by real estate, and the majority of middle class and middle -class income class have been stuck in real estate.The core support of consumption is not a high -income class, but a medium and middle -income class.

Yang Weimin admits that economic pressure is due to the decline in consumption. One of the important reasons for consumption decline is the pressure of high housing prices and mortgages. Source: China Securities Journal