For Kim Jong -un, 2018 is undoubtedly one year for its diplomatic harvest.Earlier, there were few foreign heads visited by the closed country under his governance, and Kim Jong -un has never across the Korean country after his administration.In 2018, Kim Jong -un visited China three times, met with South Korean President Moon Jae -in three times, and went to Singapore to have an unprecedented special gold club with US President Trump.
In statistics, the busy 2018 Kim Jong -un diplomacy can be seen.From the beginning of 2018 to mid -December, there were 123 news from the official Kim Jong -un announced by North Korean official media, of which 95 of the relevant activities in the diplomatic and economic fields were (52 diplomacy, 43 economy), accounting for nearly 80 % of the total numberEssenceAt this stage, there were only eight reports involving military inspections, far less than 41 in 2017.
Diplomacy and economy became the main axis of Kim Jong -un's activity, reflecting North Korea's strategic transformation.At the Third Plenary Session of the Seventh Plenary Session of the Labor Party held in April this year, Kim Jong -un announced that the strategic measures that the economic and nuclear power construction proposed in 2013 has ended.Essence
Looking forward to the 2019 Kim Jong -un diplomacy, the purpose of protecting economic construction will not change. This involves creating a good international security environment, promoting the dismissal of economic sanctions on North Korea, and expanding North Korea's international space.Specifically, North Korea hopes to continue to improve and develop with important neighbors in the United States, surrounding countries, and traditional friendly countries.
Seeking a breakthrough in US diplomacy is undoubtedly the core task of Kim Jong -un's diplomacy. The second special gold meeting in early 2019 will be the highlight of Kim Jong -un's diplomacy.If the US -DPRK relations spend the bottom line, rupture and repairs in 2018, then in 2019, the United States and North Korea will have a probability of reaching some critical transactions.For North Korea, without the substantial improvement of relations with the United States, sanctions cannot be lifted, and North Korea does not follow the road to the West.In the long run, the United States will not tolerate a North Korean North Korea that coexists for a long time, and North Korea ’s de -nuclear sincerity will eventually be tested.
Before the second special gold club was staged, Kim Jong -un should return to South Korea to promote the Kim Society.As the most concerned about North Korea's issue, it originally hoped that Kim Jong -un can realize visiting South Korea in the year. The return visit in early 2019 has been delayed.In the eyes of Kim Jong -un, South Korea's role in mediation between North Korea and the United States is indispensable, and the improvement of North Korea -South Korea relations is relatively easy, but it does not play a decisive role.Of course, there are many specific things such as railway construction, economic cooperation, military trust, and cultural exchanges between the two countries. Wen Zaiyin also needs Jinwen to add bricks to his achievements.
Wen Zaiyin's enthusiasm is not limited to North Korea and the United States. After his visit to the North Korea in September this year, and the summit of the Argentine G20, he broke the news twice that the Chinese President ... will visit North Korea in 2019.
2019 coincides with the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and North Korea, and as a return visit to China in 2018, it seems that there seems to be no suspense.However, China -DPRK relations are largely influenced by Sino -US relations. In the context of the Sino -US trade war and the United States curbing China, the North Korean issue has actually been linked to the Sino -US trade issues.It is undoubtedly revealed.At the G20 Xi Special Conference, in fact, we mainly talked about two issues, namely the Sino -US trade war and North Korea issues.For Kim Jong -un, Sino -US cooperation is by no means good news for North Korea.
In important neighboring countries in North Korea, Kim Jong -un has finalized to visit Russia next year.In fact, as early as 2015, it was rumored that Kim Jong -un will visit Russia to participate in the 70th anniversary of the victory of the anti -fascist.Russia's importance to North Korea cannot say the same day as China and the United States, but the trade between North Korea and Russia has greatly helped North Korea.In the termination of sanctions on the DPRK, Putin and China have similar positions, and they tend to relax sanctions.Kim Jong -un's attitude towards another important neighbor is not positive.Although Japanese Prime Minister Abe intends to meet him, it is foreseeable that the possibility of improvement of Asahi and Japan relations before the North Korea -US relations have not achieved substantial progress.
In terms of traditional friendly countries, Kim Jong -un's 2019 visit plan may also include Mongolia, Cuba and Vietnam.DPRK -Mongolia relations have always been good. Mongolian President Erler Berg Doulgi also visited North Korea in 2013. In November this year, Dias Middot; Karnell, chairman of the Cuban State Council, visited the DPRK and was welcomed by Grand.These two countries are also reasonable.At the end of November, North Korean foreign minister Li Yonghao visited Vietnam's movement intriguing.If Kim Jong -un can achieve visiting Vietnam, there may be two meanings: one is to learn from the experience of Vietnam's economic reform and development; the other is that the Second Special Gold may be staged in Vietnam.
In addition, the Vatican Pope also expressed his willingness to visit North Korea in 2019, of course, this is more like icing on the cake and symbolic diplomatic activities.If it is said that in 2019 and the United States and the United States, there will be a big turn, and even Kim Jong -un's possibility of visiting the United States will be very high.At that time, Kim Jong -un may also participate in multilateral diplomatic activities from international organizations such as the United Nations.
If Kim Jong -un's diplomacy in 2018 has only taken a small step, then North Korea ’s diplomacy in 2019 is likely to jump to a new level.North Korea under the rule of Kim Jong -un is brewing. In 2019, Kim Jong -un is likely to expand openness, learn from various countries, try to part into the international community and enhance North Korea's international visibility.But all the key still needs a major breakthrough in North Korea and the United States.
The author is a researcher at Anbang Think Tank International Relations Center
The article only represents personal point of view
