Author: Su Yao
Source: Reuters Chinese Network
Despite the small town of partiality, Shandong Heze suddenly became the focus of the country's attention due to the cancellation of a paper notification.Although the local Housing and Urban Construction Bureau emergency issuance on Wednesday evening stated that it was just canceling the limit of restrictions on the transfer of existing housing, Heze was still regarded as the first city in the country to formally officially release real estate regulation measures, and triggered whether there would be more places to follow up with conjectures.EssenceHowever, analysts believe that, given that the current situations in various places in China are different, it is a consensus to adapt to local conditions under the total tone of insisting on housing and live in housing.Say, relaxing is not so easy.
Heze is a typical third- and fourth -tier cities. It originally had a lot of tailoring and other measures. The incident had a certain significance, but I didn't think it was a fundamental turning point.Lu Ting, the chief economist of Nomura China, said that with the increase in economic downward pressure in the first half of next year, there may be a fine -tuned real estate policy in the second quarter of hot cities in the second quarter, which may involve loosening of limited price and limited sales.
He pointed out that Heze has a strong shed reform in the past few years, has a high proportion of monetary resettlement, and has rapid development. Recently, the sales of new house sales data are deteriorated.The space for policy adjustment is also larger.
The Heze Housing and Urban -Rural Development Bureau issued a notice on Tuesday evening, canceling the new housing restrictions and transfer measures promulgated about one year ago, and reduced the supervision of pre -sale funds for commercial housing in urban areas.The notice states that the latest measures are to implement the transformation and deployment of the State Council and the renovation of the provincial and municipal shantytowns, and the relevant decision -making deployment of real estate, solidly and steadily promote the renovation of shantytowns, regulate the order of the real estate market, stabilize market expectations, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
Earlier, Heze issued a notice of notifications on further strengthening the real estate market regulation in November 2017, and implemented new housing restrictions and transfer measures for counties and districts with high housing transaction volume and stable housing prices.Commodity housing and second -hand housing obtain a property right certificate for at least two years before they are listed and traded. Non -local residents' purchase restrictions for transferring transfer time is not less than three years.
As soon as the latest notice of the Heze Housing and Urban Construction Bureau came out last night, it immediately spread widely in social media.Today, a domestic media quoted the Heze Housing and Urban Construction Bureau to say that it was a policy based on local conditions. I did not expect such a great attention.
On Wednesday evening, the bureau issued a description of the cancellation of sales restrictions that after the relevant restrictions in November last year, many citizens who were preparing to buy existing housing, especially citizens who had monetized compensation for shed reform, could not buyThe appropriate existing housing requires the cancellation of the desire to cancel the regulations on the transfer period is very urgent.In recent years, affected by the transfer period, the transaction price of second -hand housing in Heze City has increased faster year -on -year.
In order to prevent large fluctuations in the price of commercial housing and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, after careful investigation and evaluation, the Heze Municipal Housing and Urban Construction Bureau decided to cancel the regulations on the transfer of new purchase and second -hand housing transfer.The description points out.The official media of Shandong Province-Volkswagen.com quoted officials of the Shandong Provincial Department of Housing and Construction earlier that the Heze Housing and Urban Construction Bureau did not record them. They were not clear about the specific situation and were currently scheduled to understand the relevant situation. Moreover, Heze issued this measure.It does not indicate that cities can cancel the sales restriction measures according to their own reality.The news of the cancellation of restrictions on sales of Heze stimulated the rise in the real estate index on Wednesday, but the rising power was insufficient.
Full loosening is still extravagant
Near the end of the year, the number of signals of cooling down in the Chinese property market has also increased. The sound of local governments on the rise in house prices has begun to weaken. Liming has also been limited to the newspapers.According to the news that needs to be reported, although this is regarded as a conventional measure by professionals, the intention of stable house prices is self -evident.In response to the latest notice of Heze, Huachen Securities analyst Yuan Hao commented that this time Heze relaxed restrictions, and the demand for improvement and investment in the new house market may be boosted.And the transaction transfer of second -hand housing in hot spots and counties, thereby facilitating the re -establishment of first -hand and second -hand housing trading chains. To a certain extent, the transaction of first -hand housing has certain emotional comfort for the market. HoweverIt is more biased towards the supply -side policy, so it is expected to boost demand for limited.However, it is even more noteworthy that this time the Heze policy was fine -tuned to the local relaxation for the first time, and the first shot of the first shot of RSQUO; the significance was greater than its own booster for demand.He wrote.He believes that from the recent meeting of the Politburo's meeting, the active factors in the industry are brewing, and the relaxation of local tentative policies has emerged, and the loosening interest rates of multi -city mortgages will continue to expand. It is expected that the follow -up policy environment will gradually improve.Recently, the two Central Political Bureau meetings have not mentioned real estate. The last time the real estate statement was still in July this year. At that timeHealthy development and long -term mechanism.However, most people still believe that policy changes are mainly stable.Zhao Wei, an analyst at the macro -income team of Changjiang Securities, pointed out that unlike the adjustment of the total policy policy of traditional demand, the current changes in real estate policies focus on the city's policy and focus on stable rather than stimulating the economy.He said that at present, the overall stability of house prices in the first and second -tier lines, and the inventory of the third -tier and below returns to a reasonable range; under the policy of urban policy, changes in different energy -level urban policies may differentiate.In November, the price index of new houses in 70 large and medium -sized cities in China increased a year -on -year high of 16 months, and the increase of rising from the previous month was slightly decreased. However, second -hand houses continued to cool down.The decline in the four major first -tier cities has expanded, showing that the turn of the second -hand housing market has appeared.
The results of the latest quarter survey of Reuters show that the Chinese real estate market will enter the downward channel next year and be affected by the weakened shed reform. The third and fourth -line property market will become the overall market next year; but on the other hand, it may also meanUnder the premise of strictly, there is local relaxation space for real estate regulation.
