Early
Point
Hunsheng Paper
The "China's No. 1 Economic City" challenge that can't be hit in the past half a century has finally changed the master this year.
The economic data released by the China Capital Beijing and Economic Center on Monday (July 18) shows that in the first half of this year), Surpassed Shanghai with a weak advantage of 190 million yuan, and became the first city in China in China.
The historical data of Chinese media statistics show that since 1978, the total amount of GDP in Shanghai has been leading Beijing.In the first half of last year, Shanghai GDP also led 87.4 billion yuan in Beijing; the gap between the two places throughout the year has expanded to 294.5 billion yuan.It is undoubtedly the second season of Shanghai for two months in the second season.
Shanghai GDP increased by 3.1 % year -on -year in the first quarter of this year, but in April and May, the city's economy stopped. The direct consequence was that the second quarter of GDP shrinks by nearly 14 %, and then dragged down 5.7 % year -on -year GDP.
In contrast, the new "First Economic City" Beijing's GDP in the first half of the year was only 0.7 % slightly slightly increased from the same period last year. In the second quarter, it shrank 2.9 %, the worst performance since the outbreak of the 2020 epidemic.Although it is not fully closed like Shanghai, many districts to stop eating food and home office, which also causes a lot of losses in the Beijing economy.
Just as some media and public account analysis of the industrial advantages of Shanghai and Beijing, and who will win the "First Economic City" throughout the year, smart Chinese netizens broke: this year is not more developed than anyone else this year.Okay, but it depends on who has less closed control.
Data confirms that netizens say nothing.Of the 31 provinces and cities in China, a total of five have grown negatively in the second quarter. In addition to Beijing and Shanghai, there are Jilin, Jiangsu and Hainan.Jilin, one and a half months in Fengcheng, the first quarter of GDP shrinking 7.9 %, and the second quarter slipped 4.5 %; Jiangsu, which is the most closely linked with Shanghai, fell 1.1 % in the second quarter.Due to the reduction of tourists in multiple provinces and cities, tourists have reduced significantly, causing GDP in the second quarter to shrink 2.5 %.
In the past few years, the GDP growth goals and final growth set by Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong are quite close to the national level, and are regarded as a vane of observing the Chinese economy.Earlier this year, Shanghai and Guangdong settled the annual economic growth expectations at about 5.5 %, Beijing was scheduled to be more than 5 %, and then officially set the national growth target to about 5.5 %.
From the perspective of the first half of the year, unless the retaliatory rebound occurred in the second half of the year, the economic growth rate of the above three places this year is difficult to meet the standards. This is also the judgment of most analysts on the Chinese economy.Pang Yan, chief economist of Zhongliang Langli Greater China, pointed out that if China's economy will reach about 5.5 % of the year's economy, it will increase at least 8 % per quarter in the second half of the year.
While predicting how the official will stimulate the economy, it is generally believed that before the zero -epidemic prevention policy has shifted fundamentally, the epidemic is still the biggest variable of China's economic growth in the second half of the year.
In the past half of the second half of the year, the prevention control control of epidemic prevention in Beijing and Shanghai has not seen any obvious relaxation.Just this week, Beijing also announced that hotels in the city must not host wedding banquets, birthday banquets and group banquets.After nearly a month after adopting the "three -day and two -test" nucleic acid screening in multiple districts, it was announced that the free normalized nucleic acid testing was announced again to August 31.This means that in the next month, frequent nucleic acid testing is still the commonplace of Shanghai citizens.
Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang on Tuesday (July 19) attended the World Economic Forum Global Entrepreneur Video Special Dialogue Meeting that at this stage, the focus is to stabilize employment and prices."The economic growth rate is more acceptable."
In the early days of the outbreak of the crown disease epidemic in 2020, the Chinese government rarely settled the annual economic growth goals, allowing local governments to be relieved from the burden of insurance growth, and put their energy on employment and people's livelihood.But this time, it is different from the past. Nowadays, it is facing more heavy epidemic prevention tasks. When high -pressure epidemic prevention causes slow consumption recovery, corporate layoffs, reduced residents' income, and how to stabilize employment and stabilize prices?
Taking Shanghai as an example, the urban survey rate of this economic center in the second quarter of this year reached 12.5 %, becoming the only provincial administrative region in the country with a double -digit rate of unemployment.Even after the unblocking in June, the 7 % investigation unemployment rate is still 1.5 percentage points higher than the national average, highlighting the huge impact of economic weakness on employment.
With the getting closer and closer of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the prevention pressure in China's largest cities has continued to increase.Judging from the current situation, it is difficult to ensure that the epidemic is controlled at the expense of economic development.However, the impact of economic slowdown on people's livelihood and the impact of social stability has also become a difficult challenge for decision -making.
When epidemic prevention control becomes a key factor restricting economic growth, who is the first economic market is not so important.After all, for the people, GDP is only a string of numbers. Only when they convert into the rice bowl in their hands and the banknote in their pockets, they have practical significance.
