Affected by the closure of the crown disease epidemic, the year -on -year growth rate of China's economy in the second quarter fell to the lowest 0.4 % in two years, and fell 2.6 % from the first quarter.Economists generally believe that China is expected to achieve a growth target of about 5.5 % this year, which will be the first time that China's economic growth has been lower than official expectations since 1998.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Friday (July 15) shows that the GDP of China (GDP) in the first half of the year increased by 2.5 % year -on -year, and the second quarter of GDP increased by 0.4 % year -on -yearabout.Earlier, the worst performance of China's economic quarter was 6.8 % when the outbreak of Wuhan epidemic in the first quarter of 2020.
A spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, Fu Linghui, pointed out at a press conference on Friday that this year's super -expected sudden factors brought serious impact, and the downward pressure on the economic downturn in the second quarter increased significantly, and it maintained a "very difficult" growth.
In June, the year -on -year increase in industrial added value expanded from 0.7 % in May to 3.9 %, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods fell 6.7 % from May to an increase of 3.1 %.However, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the first half of the year still declined by 0.7 % year -on -year, of which the most serious catering revenue was reduced by 7.7 %.
In the first half of the real estate sector, the loss of heavy losses in the first half of the year, real estate development investment decreased by 5.4 % year -on -year, the national commercial housing sales area decreased by 22.2 %, and the sales of commercial houses decreased by 28.9 %.
The national urban survey unemployment rate fell from 5.9 % in May to 5.5 % in June, but the population survey rate of population 16 to 24 climbed from 18.4 % to a new high of 19.3 %, highlighting the severe employment situation of fresh graduates.Essence
Fu Linghui admits that affected by risk risk of world economic stagflation, increased external uncertainty factors, and the impact of domestic epidemic conditions, the difficulty of China's economic growth is increasing.It is expected that there is a challenge to maintain the steady economic growth "still to work hard."
It is expected that new stimulus measures will be announced soon
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that China's GDP growth throughout the year is only slightly higher than 4 %.Goldman Sachs even reduced the annual growth rate to 3.3 %.If the Chinese economy cannot reach about 5.5 % of the growth target set up at the beginning of the year, it will be the first time since 1998.At the same time, the Chinese economy was also impacted by the Asian financial crisis and domestic floods, which increased by 7.8 % throughout the year, slightly lower than 8 %.Another special case is that the official growth goal was set when the epidemic outbreak was outbreak in 2020.
Xie Dongming, director of the Research Director of the Greater China of Overseas Chinese, predicted during an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that China's economic growth this year was 4.5 % to 5 %.He said that the Politburo meeting held at the end of the month is particularly worthy of attention, and the meeting will guide the direction of economic policy in the second half of the year.
Xie Dongming predicts that a new round of economic stimulus will be announced shortly after the decision -making level, including the issuance of special government bonds, or putting local debt in advance to transform the local fiscal blood that is almost emptied by epidemic prevention.However, whether the Chinese property market can get out of the trough in the second half of the year, whether the foreign trade can maintain strong growth still needs to be observed.
The total import and export of China maintained a strong growth of 9.4 % in the first half of the year.The former deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce Wei Jianguo optimistic that the import and export of imports and exports in the third and fourth quarters will achieve double -digit growth, driving the annual GDP growth rate of 5.5 % or even 6 %.
Chen Bo, dean of Wuhan Optics Valley Free Trade Research Institute, said in an interview that foreign trade is the main driving force for positive growth in the second quarter of economic maintenance, but with the increase in global inflation, many major economies are facing "The risk of hard landing may lead to decline in external demand.Therefore, in the second half of the year, the economy depends mainly on domestic demand, and the government must increase economic stimulus.
In addition, whether the existing dynamic zero -zero policy can cope with the continuously enhanced coronary strain, it will also have economic trends in the second half of the year.Chen Bo pointed out that this year's blocking control has caused tremendous pressure on the service industry. "" Whether this industry that absorbs a large number of labor power can continue to recover under the dynamic clearing policy, not only related to economic growth, but also deciding whether the unemployment rate continues to climb or touch the touches.Fall. "
A spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics Fu Linghui admitted that the difficulty of China's economic growth has reached potential levels. This year, the annual economic growth expectations have been challenged, and the economic growth of the economic growth is "still working hard."
